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These numbers are not what you’d expect just looking at the rankings.
Penn St. Nittany Lions (7-4; 4-4 Big Ten East) vs Michigan State Spartans (9-2; 6-2 Big Ten East)
3:30 p.m. ET, November 27, 2021--ABC
Spartan Stadium (Capacity: 75,005 / East Lansing, MI)
| Penn State | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Value (Nat'l Rank) | Michigan State | Advantage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing Offense (ypg) | 110.5 (116) | 123.5 (26) | Rushing Defense (ypg) |
 |
| Passing Offense (ypg) | 270.9 (25) | 339.9 (130) | Passing Defense (ypg) |
 |
| Pass Efficiency | 133.48 (81) | 136.59 (77) | Pass Efficiency Defense | Push |
| Total Offense (ypg) | 381.5 (84) | 463.4 (120) | Total Defense (ypg) |
|
| Scoring Offense (ppg) | 26.2 (T - 80) | 25.55 (63) | Scoring Defense (ppg) | Push |
| Rushing Defense (ypg) | 131.7 (34) | 185.8 (44) | Rushing Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Passing Defense (ypg) | 202.9 (29) | 243.3 (58) | Passing Offense (ypg) |
|
| Pass Efficiency Defense | 108.77 (7) | 148.87 (40) | Pass Efficiency | |
| Total Defense (ypg) | 334.6 (27) | 429.1 (45) | Total Offense (ypg) | Push |
| Scoring Defense (ppg) | 15.55 (4) | 32.1 (T - 41) | Scoring Offense (ppg) | |
| Punt Return Defense (ypr) | 2.38 (6) | 19.27 (3) | Punt Return Yds (ypr) | Push |
| Punt Return Yds (ypr) | 7.0 (T - 82) | 8.2 (T - 70) | Punt Return Defense (ypr) | Push |
| Net Punting Yds (ypp) | 44.93 (2) | 43.26 (10) | Net Punting Yds (ypp) | Push |
| Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) | 15.3 (125) | 17.21 (12) | Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) |
|
| Kickoff Return Defense (ypr) | 11.0 (1) | 20.88 (64) | Kickoff Return Yds (ypr) |
|
| Turnover Margin (season) | +.64 (T - 20) | +.27 (T - 45) | Turnover Margin (season) | |
| Passes Had Intercepted (season) | 8 (T - 45) | 9 (T - 61) | Passes Intercepted (season) | Push |
| Passes Intercepted (season) | 11 (T - 30) | 8 (T - 45) | Passes Had Intercepted (season) | Push |
| Penalty Yds/Game | 52.0 (60) | 67.82 (116) | Penalty Yds/Game |
|
| Sacks (spg) | 2.0 (T - 75) | 1.64 (T - 34) | Sacks Allowed (spg) | |
| Sacks Allowed (spg) | 2.55 (T - 91) | 3.09 (T - 16) | Sacks (spg) |
|
| Tackles for Loss (tpg) | 6.1 (T - 48) | 5.55 (T - 68) | Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | Push |
| Tackles for Loss Allowed (tpg) | 6.61 (T - 112) | 6.1 (T - 48) | Tackles for Loss (tpg) |
|
| Redzone Offense (% season) | 86.1% (51) | 83.3% (T - 68) | Redzone Defense (% season) | Push |
| Redzone Defense (% season) | 62.2% (3) | 85.0% (T - 62) | Redzone Offense (% season) |
|
| Redzone TD % (season) | 52.78% | 47.92% | Redzone TD % Defense (season) | Push |
| Redzone TD % Defense (season) | 29.73% | 65.0% | Redzone TD % (season) | |
| 3rd Down Conv. % (season) | 38.5% (75) | 41.8% (95) | 3rd Down Defense % (season) | Push |
| 3rd Down Defense % (season) | 35.0% (31) | 37.6% (81) | 3rd Down Conv. % (season) |
|
| 4th Down Conv. % (season) | 42.9% (T - 94) | 62.5% (T - 100) | 4th Down Defense % (season) | Push |
| 4th Down Defense % (season) | 52.9% (T - 73) | 66.7% (T - 19) | 4th Down Conv. % |
|
| 1st Downs | 228 (T - 72) | 285 (129) | 1st Downs Allowed |
|
| 1st Downs Allowed | 226 (69) | 225 (82) | 1st Downs | Push |
| Time of Possession | 28 (99) | 26 (120) | Time of Possession | Push |
| Strength of Schedule | 6 | 21 | Strength of Schedule | Push |
Difference >25 in National Rank =
Difference >50 in National Rank =
Difference >75 in National Rank =
Difference >100 in National Rank =
Note:
All of the above rankings are taken directly from the NCAA except for strength of schedule, which is taken from Team Rankings.com.
The Redzone TD% and Redzone TD% Defense are calculated by me and not ranked by the NCAA. Determining who has the advantage in these categories is strictly my arbitrary judgment.
Quick thoughts:
This chart is this season in a nutshell - an all-encompassing “what if”. This game is eminently winnable by Penn State, but will depend on which PSU team shows up. The defense’ll be there - but will the offense?
The Nittany Lions get an edge in a lot of areas here, which MSU being better in special teams and rushing the line of scrimmage when they’re on defense. When the teams are in the redzone, though, is where Penn State will shine; on offense, PSU has been in the redzone 36 times (scoring 19 touchdowns and 12 field goals), while MSU has allowed 48 (!!!) redzone attempts by their opponents, resulting in 23 touchdowns and 17 field goals.
On the flip side, the Lion defense has been stellar in the redzone; there’ve been 37 attempts against them, but only 11 touchdowns and 12 field goals have been allowed (fewer touchdowns than field goals is really rare, and really good). The Spartan offense has been in the redzone 40 times themselves, with 26 touchdowns and 8 field goals scored.
And though both teams are great at limiting kickoff returns, PSU has only faced 1 (and last week, Rutgers had an opportunity but allowed the Stout kick to bounce into the endzone) - MSU has had 19 kickoffs returned. Penn State has returned only 10 kickoffs to Michigan State’s 24, too.
what say you all?
--------------------------------
By: Cari Greene
Title: Just the Stats: Penn State at No. 12 Michigan State
Sourced From: www.blackshoediaries.com/2021/11/24/22799388/penn-state-football-just-the-stats-at-12-michigan-state-defense-contract-extension-franklin-tucker
Published Date: Wed, 24 Nov 2021 20:48:00 +0000
