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Is next year the year?
In this setup, the five highest-ranked conference champions would receive automatic bids to the playoffs, with the remaining 7 spots going to at-large teams.
This is interesting, because until recently, there were six auto-bids, going to the six highest-rated conference champions - but that was when there was a Power 5, or P5. Now, with the demise of the Pac-12 (sorry, Oregon State and Washington State, two teams do not a conference make), it’s down to the P4.
That still means that another conference champion will claim an auto-bid, which still means that just being in the top 12 is not sufficient to make the playoff. In the likelihood that a Group of 5 (6?) champ is outside the top 12, the cutoff to make the playoff is likely the #11 ranking moving forward.
So with that in mind, is 2024 the year that the Lions make the playoffs for the first time?
They missed out on the four-team playoff despite coming close once or twice, but how many years would they have made a 12-team playoff? Let’s take a look:
- 2014 - Unranked, would NOT have made it
- 2015 - Unranked, would NOT have made it
- 2016 - #5, WOULD have made it
- 2017 - #9, WOULD have made it
- 2018 - #12, WOULD have made it*
- 2019 - #10, WOULD have made it
- 2020 - Unranked, would NOT have made it
- 2021 - Unranked, would NOT have made it
- 2022 - #11, WOULD have made it
- 2023 - #10, WOULD have made it
*In 2018, Notre Dame was the #3 team, pushing the bubble to the #12 ranking. That year, however, the five auto-bids would have gone to #1 Bama, #2 Clemson, #4 Oklahoma, #6 OSU, and #8 UCF. UCF being ranked above the Lions keeps the bubble at #12, and the Lions would have gotten to take on #5 UGA in the first round.
So going back to 2014, Penn State has either been in the playoffs, or completely unranked. No in between, they’re a “if you ain’t first, you’re last” kinda team under Franklin. Of course, there’s also the likelihood that rankings change a bit based on cutoffs for which teams get in, but still.
So, will Penn State make the playoffs next year? The schedule seems relatively favorable, with the likelihood that USC and Washington will be taking steps back in 2024. OSU will be tough as always, and Wisconsin is a big question mark. But another 10-2 type season is not out of the question, which likely puts the team in that 10-12 bubble range.
Time will tell, but I defy you to find a team that would have had a bigger swing in making the playoffs than the Lions over the last 10 years with the change to the 12-team format. Who knows, maybe they can actually secure one of those auto-bids one of these years!
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By: Chris Lucia
Title: MMQB - 5+7
Sourced From: www.blackshoediaries.com/2024/2/26/24081141/mmqb-5-7-bsd-penn-state-nittany-lions-football-college-football-playoff
Published Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2024 11:52:00 +0000
