Monday, Oct 2, 2023

BSD Roundtable: 2022 Penn State Football Over/Unders


Ohio State v Penn State
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Eventually, Sean Clifford is going to go OVER on touchdowns. Eventually.

Like I asked last year, and will ask so again: is life too short to bet the under? Chris and Lando joined me in answering this as we tackled some over/unders for Penn State’s 2022 football season.

Sean Clifford passing TDs: 26.5

Lando: Over. I’m trying to be a more optimistic sports fan, and with three deep threats in PW, KLS, and Mitchell Tinsley, plus Theo Johnson in the red zone, Sean getting 28 or even more is certainly possible.

Chris: Over. I’m calling for 30 this year, as Sean makes all-conference noise in his swan song. I’m also ready to be hurt again.

Patrick: Over. I already staked my claim in the “Five Things I Know I Know” article that Clifford will have over 30 touchdowns, so it’s only right I go over 26.5 here too. Really, the only thing that should prevent Cliff from hitting this is staying healthy. Which, as we’ve seen in two of the last three seasons, isn’t the safest bet in the world.

Running back having over 799.5 yards

Lando: Under. This is probably more due to the future emergence of Nick Singleton as the primary ball-carrier somewhere between a third and halfway through the season will result in a single running back not getting enough touches. I expect the staff to stick with Keyvone Lee for the first chunk of the season before slowly giving the reins to Singleton. (Even then, I can’t see it being entirely a one-man job given past years.)

Chris: Under. It’ll be Lee to start, then Singleton will slowly eat some snaps, but the rotation will never end and no one back gets over 800 yards. However, we will finally have SOMEbody rush for 100 in a game.

Patrick: Over. Again, another one I’ve already staked my claim on with the “Five Things I Know I Know” piece. I said then that Nicholas Singleton will rush for over 1,000 yards, and my goodness, I am keeping with the positive vibes.

Parker Washington receptions: 74.5

Lando: Under. I think Parker is good for at least 60, but given the aforementioned KLS and Tinsley, the ball should be spread around quite a bit.

Chris: Under. Too many options in the passing game, and no super clear WR1 like we had with Dotson. I will say, however, that Clifford does tend to latch onto one receiver as his go-to (Hamler, Dotson) and throws to them a TON. So if Cliff and Washington develop their rapport, this could be an interesting one.

Patrick: Under. With Jahan Dotson gone and Parker Washington stepping into the No. 1 wideout spot, I think conventional wisdom would have the over here. But I really some of the other receiving targets like Mitchell Tinsley and KeAndre Lambert-Smith. Because of that, I think we see more of an even split among targets and receptions. So it’s close, but give me the under.

Tight end having over 24.5 receptions

Lando: Over. 30 catches for Theo sounds good. We’ll see how much playing time Brenton Strange gets, though.

Chris: Under but only because Mike Yurcich and TEs are not exactly a match made in heaven. Also, the TE play was less than stellar last year and we already discussed Clifford and his wubbie.

Patrick: Under. Listen, I’d love if this was an over. I think Theo Johnson is going to be one of those players we look back on and wished we utilized him more. But I think we’ll continue to see the rotation of tight ends being used, with Tyler Warren seeing the biggest uptick in targets/receptions compared to last season.

Adisa Isaac sacks: 6 sacks

Lando: Push. I would love 8 to 10, honestly-but given the constant defensive line rotation that has occurred in the Franklin era, another Ebiketie-like year is unlikely.

Chris: Over. Think Isaac finally breaks out before heading to the NFL. Dark horse on DDS pushing for these sorts of numbers as well.

Patrick: Under. This isn’t a knock on Isaac as much as it is a prediction I think the sack numbers will be shared pretty evenly amongst the rest of the defensive line; kind of like we saw during the 2017 season. Shareef Miller led Penn State with 5 sacks, but you had nine other players with at least 2 sacks throughout the defense.

Curtis Jacobs tackles: 94.5

Lando: Under. Jacobs should have close to 80, but it’s hard to see 30 more tackles than last season. Jacobs should lead the team, though.

Chris: Over. I think the positional change will be a huge boon for Jacobs, and while the D-line should be okay, I think the LBs will be called on a lot.

Patrick: Over. This is as much a prediction about Jacobs’ talent as it is about the depth at linebacker. I mean, Jacobs is basically going to have to play the entire game, and if you are a box linebacker playing the entire game, you’re going to sniff around 90 tackles just by being out there.

Ji’Ayir Brown INTs: 2.5

Lando: Over. I think three picks is just right. No way teams throw near him the way they did in 2021.

Chris: Under. I’ll happily be wrong on this one, but replicating the production Brown had in 2021 will be tough. He’ll be good for a couple, but I expect teams to avoid him if they can.

Patrick: Under. This isn’t to take anything away from Brown’s season last year when he hauled in six interceptions. He was out there, he made the plays, he deserves credit. Getting interceptions absolutely takes skill and timing and instincts and all of that, but it also takes a bit of luck in being at the right place at the right time. But I just think there is going to be some sort of return to the mean.



By: Patrick KoerblerLndoBSDChris Lucia
Title: BSD Roundtable: 2022 Penn State Football Over/Unders
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Published Date: Wed, 17 Aug 2022 14:40:00 +0000

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